Description

This analysis provides a forecast of ETC prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-12-21 7.734022 8.904599 10.168491 11.631583 13.275512 15.062407 17.148456
2025-12-28 6.188712 7.805094 9.688323 12.032065 14.857230 18.138645 22.223171
2026-01-04 5.335966 7.138900 9.344552 12.217821 15.835576 20.211137 25.871824
2026-01-11 4.565531 6.450444 8.861862 12.135723 16.421633 21.794049 28.982891
2026-01-18 3.962651 5.876537 8.423539 12.008402 16.861889 23.134479 31.771068
2026-01-25 3.518295 5.455229 8.127487 12.013301 17.435073 24.634785 34.800615
2026-02-01 3.179706 5.137415 7.929224 12.111169 18.106850 26.264395 38.043389
2026-02-08 2.842302 4.780125 7.633570 12.031383 18.501857 27.509882 40.793381
2026-02-15 2.545340 4.449572 7.341120 11.920176 18.824026 28.644673 43.413358
2026-02-22 2.331760 4.225857 7.185162 11.989885 19.397495 30.142734 46.590483
2026-03-01 2.201770 4.123376 7.204141 12.319525 20.364943 32.239782 50.703324
2026-03-08 1.979830 3.842558 6.913558 12.137241 20.529982 33.148207 53.095153
2026-03-15 1.709824 3.453610 6.419165 11.599476 20.119084 33.187992 54.221226
2026-03-22 1.622052 3.382244 6.450312 11.923157 21.089772 35.372740 58.681445
2026-03-29 1.524311 3.281180 6.419404 12.134585 21.880585 37.300470 62.807609
2026-04-05 1.389408 3.094782 6.221848 12.043425 22.160987 38.428261 65.721269
2026-04-12 1.264008 2.913039 6.016338 11.920299 22.373477 39.445870 68.486529
2026-04-19 1.167956 2.779916 5.888570 11.923982 22.796343 40.813112 71.851851
2026-04-26 1.092387 2.681074 5.816616 12.021636 23.382032 42.464107 75.728172
2026-05-03 1.002882 2.542531 5.656194 11.942217 23.646427 43.583579 78.763884
2026-05-10 0.918352 2.405328 5.486560 11.831784 23.844576 44.591662 81.640783
2026-05-17 0.859739 2.320060 5.413978 11.901022 24.368224 46.168760 85.517568
2026-05-24 0.830294 2.299422 5.472270 12.228535 25.381216 48.624922 90.961805